On November 13-14, CAPS Unlock (Almaty) and PaperLab (Astana) held the fourth edition of the Central Asia Think Tank Forum in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana.
The two-day event brought together researchers, practitioners and civil society representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, four countries that make up much of Central Asia.
Although geographically close and historically interconnected, these states often analyse policy challenges within narrow national frameworks. The Forum was launched in 2022 to counter that pattern by creating an independent and shared space for regional discussion, one that allows institutions to compare evidence, test assumptions, and recognise shared pressures.
This edition focused on demographic transformation, social values and the capacity of Central Asian policy research organisations to respond to accelerating demands on public systems.
The opening session centred on UNICEF Kazakhstan’s Generation 2050 study, which provided the empirical baseline for many discussions. The findings show a region moving quickly, though unevenly, into a demographic transition that will strain education systems, labour markets, health care and urban infrastructure.
A wide-ranging panel devoted to demographic trends in the region powerfully illustrated why the Forum remains relevant. Central Asia tends to assess demographic stress on a country-by-country basis, even though the underlying pressures are regional. In Astana, participants explicitly produced recommendations conceived at a regional scale, including shared demographic foresight, coordinated planning for education and infrastructure, and closer labour-market cooperation.
One of the speakers, Zhanna Aubakirova, a scholar at East Kazakhstan Technical University, put the issue starkly:
“Population growth is concentrated in a few major cities, while other regions age and shrink. Without coherent planning, these divides will deepen.”
Across the four countries, the manifestations differ, but the pattern is familiar.
- Kazakhstan’s northern regions are ageing rapidly.
- Uzbekistan’s school system is overwhelmed and often resorts to double- and triple-shifts.
- Tajikistan faces youth unemployment, climate stress and outward migration.
- Kyrgyzstan contends with urban overcrowding and tightening skills shortages.
Participants agreed that demographic change is not a background trend but a structural constraint that will shape policy choices for decades.
The Forum also examined the frequently repeated, but rarely scrutinised, claim that Central Asia is experiencing a shift in values. Various research teams presented findings on social norms, political attitudes and perceptions of governance. Interpretations varied, yet a common thread emerged: expectations of better service delivery are rising, but trust in formal institutions remains fragile. Community-led educational initiatives, highlighted in a fireside session, including programmes such as Teach for Qazaqstan, and their counterparts in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, illustrated how local actors are stepping in to support schools where public systems are slow to adapt.
The second day focused on the state of the region’s policy research ecosystem.
Tlegen Kuandykov, programme coordinator at CAPS Unlock, presented regional insights from the State of the Sector 2025 report by On Think Tanks, based on contributions from 20 Central Asian organisations.
Many professionals in the sector report growing confidence and a clearer sense of purpose, but structural limits persist. Funding is inconsistent, organisational depth is thin, and the region lacks the prominent, well-resourced institutes that, in places like Europe, anchor the sector by setting standards, training analysts, absorbing political pressure, and providing the continuity that smaller organisations rely on.
In his presentation, he drew on his research findings to argue that technical competence alone is not enough for policy research organisations to make a difference. Credibility depends on cultivating trust in evidence, researchers and the relevance of their work. Without that foundation, policy research organisations remain vulnerable to political polarisation and short-term funding cycles.
The closing sessions focused on communications and audience engagement.
Filip Noubel, editor-at-large at Global Voices, a long-standing international platform for citizen journalism, argued that organisations in the region still rely too heavily on policy papers and closed expert circles. His workshops introduced practical methods for engaging younger audiences, adapting research for non-specialist readers and widening knowledge beyond established networks.
The 2025 edition of the Forum showed, more clearly than in previous years, that the region’s most serious policy pressures, such as demographic strain, shifting social expectations and thin analytical capacity, are shared problems, not national anomalies.
This year’s discussions did not try to resolve them, but they did narrow the distance between organisations that normally work in parallel rather than together. If the forum has a function, it is exactly that: reducing the fragmentation that keeps Central Asian evidence work confined within domestic boundaries.