The On Think Tanks team is currently working on the program for the 2025 OTT Annual Conference, which will take place in June in Johannesburg. This edition’s topic centres on influence, prompting a discussion about what do we talk about when we talk about impact and think tanks, along with many other relevant themes that frequently arise in this intriguing aspect of their purpose, as highlighted by OTT.
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Think tanks are widely recognised for their significant role in influencing policy. According to the 2024 OTT State of the Sector Report survey, think tanks assessed their policy impact over the past five years. Globally, 77% of think tanks that participated in the survey claimed to have directly influenced specific policy outcomes. Surprisingly, this direct impact was not correlated with the size of the think tanks. Additionally, it was not linked to a follow-up question—an important lesson for the upcoming edition—concerning how they measure or prove this impact. This measurement is undoubtedly challenging, just as formulating the follow-up question is. I wonder how many organisations among this majority can demonstrate a direct cause-and-effect relationship between their efforts and official decisions, especially if we expect to find a single piece of research that mirrors the exact text and ideas included in an enacted law or policy document.
Despite the presence of well-established think tanks, many governments still struggle to make informed policy choices. Examples discussed in the article “Not Influential but Useful: Rethinking How We Assess and Support Think Tanks” include Brexit, the Iraq War, and austerity measures in Europe, where governments did not consider the input of recognised think tanks. This raises the question: Is the influence of think tanks a myth, or do we need to reevaluate our understanding of influence?
I disagree with the notion that the influence of think tanks is merely a perception or narrative promoted by other actors. I firmly believe in their influence but challenge how that impact is understood, how it is supposed to be proven, and how critical factors and other influences are often overlooked in discussions about their role.
What Else Should We Consider When Assessing Think Tanks’ Influence?
To fully grasp the influence of think tanks, we must examine their interactions with various actors within the policy ecosystem, their strategic positions, and the multiple roles they fulfil in society.
The Broader Influence of Think Tanks
Adopting a broader perspective that goes beyond the narrow focus on direct impacts from policy recommendations is essential. The actual contribution of research produced by think tanks often becomes evident only over time. It is not just about an individual study or policy paper; it involves a process through which think tanks gain further expertise and insight while developing diverse types of research, tools, and knowledge outputs.
The uptake of their recommendations depends not only on the quality of the input but also on external factors such as timing, political alignment, and will. Consequently, measuring influence based solely on a specific moment or particular result is misleading. While researchers provide evidence, the final decision often lies outside their control, even when influenced by advocacy efforts.
Research may not lead directly to a specific policy outcome, but it is still valuable and should not be dismissed. The inherent processes of research and advocacy contribute to other positive collateral results. For instance, they help bring public interest topics to the forefront, enhancing the understanding of these issues among decision-makers and the media.
What Other Roles Do Think Tanks Play? What are we overlooking while obsessing over policy outcomes?
Think tanks fulfil multiple roles beyond direct policy influence and shaping political discourse. They play a vital part in creating contexts for policy discussions by facilitating inclusive (and sometimes exclusive) dialogues, collaboration, and safe spaces where key societal actors can convene, including those with decision-making power or the ability to influence those in power.
Research should focus on findings, methods, tools, and data used to benefit peers and contribute to knowledge transfer and co-creation. Previous work informs new research and decision-making, even if specific policy recommendations are not adopted. This process has intrinsic value in preparing future generations of analysts, decision-makers, and leaders.
Technical rigour and skilled data management add credibility to the research conducted by think tanks, enhancing their policy proposals and providing political actors with innovative ideas. These ideas, developed within the scope of a think tank, typically do not carry political risk, allowing for innovation and experimentation.
However, an excessive focus on policy outcomes can obscure the additional value think tanks provide to the policy ecosystem, which is equally crucial. Since we often overlook these contributions, their impact on policy outcomes remains unclear.
Unlimited Uptakes as Red Flags
If policymakers do not adopt the recommendations of think tanks, does this undermine their influence? Shouldn’t we be more concerned if public officials adopt think tank suggestions without critical evaluation?
Uptake should arise from high-quality research, inclusive dialogue with affected parties, and a comprehensive understanding of the problems and rationale behind policy solutions. Otherwise, an excessive influence might indicate weak institutional integrity, a deviation from the non-partisan and objective principles typically upheld by think tanks or the influence of a funder with a significant self-interest agenda.
Not all think tanks should be measured using the same rule
Measuring the impact of think tanks should extend beyond their direct relationship with policy outcomes. Greater attention should be given to how think tanks contribute to society by generating or safeguarding ideas, supporting various actors, and building capacity in entities like political parties and the private sector. Recognising these diverse contributions will help think tanks demonstrate their value to funders and challenge traditional assessment methods.
To facilitate this discussion, we should move away from conventional perspectives and focus on answering the following questions:
- How can we better measure a think tank’s tangible contributions and usefulness?
- How do we evaluate the quality of the decision-making process, particularly when recommendations from think tanks are adopted?
- How can we better understand the value of think tanks’ services to policymakers and the media? How can we engage more effectively with them?
- How do we assess the long-term impact of a think tank’s policy input? And…
To what extent does context matter?
Think tanks are continuously adapting to changing circumstances. Context is crucial when assessing impact, especially concerning the political landscape and funding environment. The effectiveness of think tanks and their partners can vary significantly depending on the strength of the democratic institutions they operate, the political climate, and the cultural elements of the communities affected.
Factors such as political polarisation also influence the contributions of think tanks, particularly in engaging with individuals from diverse political backgrounds.
Resource and time constraints also affect how think tanks operate. Those with limited budgets and project-based funding often spend more time securing funding and maintaining their reputation, which leaves less time for meaningful research and impactful policy work. This creates a complex challenge in balancing sustainability with impactful research. As one think tank colleague put it, “We are a think tank, and we have time for everything but to think.”
According to findings from the 2024 SOS Report, core funding affects the organisational structure, allows for long-term staff contracts, and supports the development of innovative outputs—factors that are all related to achieving higher impact.
Thus, funders play a fundamental role in determining impact as they also contribute to establishing standards for quality research and decision-making processes.
The topic of the 2025 OTT Annual Conference invites us to reflect on think tanks’ impact and how relevant actors in the policy ecosystem understand and measure it. Is it time to shift our focus to raise the value of more tangible contributions beyond simple policy outcomes? Should we call for a greater emphasis on quality processes in research and decision-making?
It is essential to consider the contexts in which think tanks operate. With South Africa set to preside over the G20 in 2025, the T20 is a platform for think tanks to generate and advocate for policy recommendations. Have their efforts influenced the policies of G20 member countries? Likely, but currently, no mechanisms are in place to effectively measure this influence. This highlights the importance of understanding the environments where think tanks function and their organisational characteristics.
I invite you to participate in this discussion and propose topics for session proposals. As a way of concluding, here are some ideas from this reflection that can be further developed:
- What do funders look for when funding think tanks, and when they demand policy outcome impact-related indicators?
- How can communities and grassroots movements be involved in creating impact? Who supports whom?
- At what level does impact make a difference: local, regional, or global?
- How should impact be assessed when think tanks operate in captured states or non-democratic regimes?
- How can the private sector and other relevant stakeholders engage in the impact discussion?
- What crucial questions should be considered during strategic planning: impact versus relevance or independence?
- What occurs when a think tank is public, and the research is commissioned? Does this guarantee the use of its evidence?
Let’s engage in this critical conversation. The world is demanding change and actors who can genuinely facilitate it. Considering the multiple problems humanity faces, what should we talk about when we talk about impact?